Hi everyone,
Just joined the forum—hope you're all doing really well. Wanted to reach out today to hear your feedback, experiences, stories and get a lively discussion going!
Over the years I've seen outcomes deviate from expectations in both large and small companies. In some cases, the expectation was based on way too optimistic assumptions—demand lower than predicted, technology performance just didn't cut it, or funding didn't come through. Other times we simply underestimated, and missed opportunities that we weren't prepared to handle (my personal nightmare)...
I'm trying to learn more about these types of experiences across your different types of small businesses in different industries.
Overall, I feel that we struggle to grasp how variability and dependencies might impact our particular situation. Forecasts, validations, simulations, and other types of projections (for example, in business plans) almost certainly have error, often disguised in a cell in an Excel spreadsheet. People might consider possible outcomes, but they need to move fast. After-the-fact, the actual outcomes are often very different than expected, and everything falls apart when something changes. For example, recently we've seen how oil price, currency, and all kinds of basic fluctuations throw everything out of whack.
Of course, your experience might be completely different and I could be way off track. Or, talking about specifics here in the forum might not be right for you—that's totally fine. If that's the case, then I sincerely apologize for wasting your time today. I’m also NOT trying to suggest that we can necessarily become better clairvoyants or improve our ability to predict the future—obviously that is nonsense!
Otherwise I'd love to hear your story in the comments about how uncertainties impact your small business results (nothing proprietary, of course). What are some of the challenges you have faced?
Just joined the forum—hope you're all doing really well. Wanted to reach out today to hear your feedback, experiences, stories and get a lively discussion going!
Over the years I've seen outcomes deviate from expectations in both large and small companies. In some cases, the expectation was based on way too optimistic assumptions—demand lower than predicted, technology performance just didn't cut it, or funding didn't come through. Other times we simply underestimated, and missed opportunities that we weren't prepared to handle (my personal nightmare)...
I'm trying to learn more about these types of experiences across your different types of small businesses in different industries.
Overall, I feel that we struggle to grasp how variability and dependencies might impact our particular situation. Forecasts, validations, simulations, and other types of projections (for example, in business plans) almost certainly have error, often disguised in a cell in an Excel spreadsheet. People might consider possible outcomes, but they need to move fast. After-the-fact, the actual outcomes are often very different than expected, and everything falls apart when something changes. For example, recently we've seen how oil price, currency, and all kinds of basic fluctuations throw everything out of whack.
Of course, your experience might be completely different and I could be way off track. Or, talking about specifics here in the forum might not be right for you—that's totally fine. If that's the case, then I sincerely apologize for wasting your time today. I’m also NOT trying to suggest that we can necessarily become better clairvoyants or improve our ability to predict the future—obviously that is nonsense!
Otherwise I'd love to hear your story in the comments about how uncertainties impact your small business results (nothing proprietary, of course). What are some of the challenges you have faced?
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